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October’s Leading Films and Performance

Photo of Liam James Liam James3 weeks agoLast Updated: 6 October 2025
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October's Leading Films and Performance

A NOTE FROM SCOTT For those of us who cover awards season, the month of September felt like a bombardment — of films, festivals and flacks fighting for attention for their clients. But now that we have emerged into October, I must say that I feel a slight sense of relief, having screened the vast majority of awards hopefuls and gathered a pretty good sense of the landscape.

Since our last update, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) was released in theaters and began dominating the awards conversation. With rave reviews (it is at 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and promising grosses (it has already crossed the $100 million mark worldwide), if also a high bar to actually become profitable (its budget, pre-marketing, was apparently $175 million), it is now neck-and-neck with — and probably even slightly ahead of — Hamnet (Focus), Sinners (Warners) and Sentimental Value (Neon) at the top of the best picture race.

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In other developments, The Testament of Ann Lee found a U.S. distributor, powerhouse Searchlight, and has the potential to shake things up in a number of categories, not least best actress — which feels like the most fluid of the four acting categories — with Amanda Seyfried. The big question mark for that category is whether or not One Battle’s breakout Chase Infiniti will be campaigned for it; I think she could contend there, and moving her out of the supporting actress race would improve the nomination prospects for her costars Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor. Warner Bros. has not yet made a final call on categories, but for the purposes of the forecast below, I am working on the assumption that that’s what they will end up doing.

This past weekend at the box office, The Smashing Machine (A24), which was made for $40 million, debuted wide and hit some turbulence, grossing just $6 million, the least of any film in which Dwayne Johnson has played a leading role. (The release of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl certainly didn’t help, although I’m not sure how much overlap there really is between the audiences for the two.) But having been in attendance at Smashing Machine’s official Academy screening in LA (I moderated the Q&A), which was far better attended than most other recent member screenings (with the exception of One Battle After Another), my sense is that Johnson and supporting actress Emily Blunt’s prospects remain strong.

Meanwhile, on the east coast, the New York Film Festival is chugging along. It opened on Sept. 26 with the North American premiere of After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM), which fell rather flat (it’s at 51 percent on RT). The fest later hosted the world premiere of Anemone (Focus), which marks the return to the screen of Daniel Day-Lewis, and was lauded primarily for the three-time Oscar winner’s performance (it’s at just 57 percent on RT); the world premiere of Ben Stiller’s doc about his late parents, Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost (Apple); the North American premiere of Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite (Netflix), which was warmly received (it’s at a solid 85 percent on RT); and the New York premiere of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century), excitement around which was boosted by the attendance of — and a performance by — Bruce Springsteen himself.

NYFF will close on Friday with the world premiere of Bradley Cooper‘s Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — but first, tonight, the fest will host “a secret screening of a highly anticipated new film,” which, I understand, could have even greater award season implications. Stay tuned!

PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.

Source: Hollywoodreporter

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Photo of Liam James Liam James3 weeks agoLast Updated: 6 October 2025
0 0 12 minutes read
Photo of Liam James

Liam James

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