Best Drama Series
WILL WIN Shogun
In a thin year (The Crown is the only repeat nom), contenders include shows new (Fallout, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, 3 Body Problem) and returning (The Morning Show, The Gilded Age, Slow Horses). But the clear frontrunner — with a field-leading 25 noms — is an epic that was expected to be a limited series before going over so well that a second season was ordered. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Shogun
The TV Academy needs to send FX a muffin basket for saving what was going to be the weakest drama field since before the days of prestige cable. Even if FX finally decides that a second Shogun season is a bad idea — and it is — Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks’ respectful, immaculately produced, astonishingly cast James Clavell adaptation is beyond worthy of its Emmy. — D.F.
Best Lead Actor, Drama Series
WILL WIN Hiroyuki Sanada
A legend in Japan, Shogun’s Hiroyuki Sanada was little-known stateside — certainly compared to fellow nominees Idris Elba (Hijack), Donald Glover (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), Walton Goggins (Fallout), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) and Dominic West (The Crown) — before playing Lord Toranaga. But thanks to that performance, he is, at 63, an international star and the clear frontrunner. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Hiroyuki Sanada
Occasionally you heard a “Not enough samurai fighting!” complaint leveled against Shogun. Balderdash. Just watching Sanada’s Toranaga in deep contemplation was top-notch action. Sanada made a potentially imperious character unpredictable yet calculating, full of human ambition yet impossible to ever read completely. — D.F.
Best Lead Actress, Drama Series
WILL WIN Anna Sawai
Given that the two actresses who played Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown both won this award, one cannot totally rule out Imelda Staunton. But the stunning 32-year-old New Zealand-born Japanese actress who played Shogun’s Lady Mariko is looking very hard to beat, having already won the TCA Award for best individual achievement in a drama over all other male and female performers. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Anna Sawai
Why is that hypothetical second Shogun season such a bad idea? Because Anna Sawai’s Mariko is the heart and soul of the first season, a character of complicated motivations and varied emotional richness, and she seems … unlikely to be back. Bonus points to Sawai for also being the best part of Apple TV+’s Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. — D.F.
Best Comedy Series
WILL WIN The Bear
The defending champion is, for its acclaimed second season, likely to win again, having garnered 23 noms, the most for any comedy ever. But its third season dropped in June and proved highly polarizing, which could redirect some support to formidable competitors Hacks, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building and Curb Your Enthusiasm, all past nominees. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Reservation Dogs
After two years of almost totally shunning the best comedy on television, voters finally noticed Sterlin Harjo’s Oklahoma-set triumph of coming-of-age Indigenous storytelling. The final season included a wild ’70s flashback, a supernaturally fueled look at generational trauma, a wacky mental hospital breakout and a beautiful father-daughter two-hander. — D.F.
Best Lead Actor, Comedy Series
WILL WIN Jeremy Allen White
It’s certainly nice to see props for Only Murders in the Building veterans Steve Martin and Martin Short and FX stars Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows) and 22-year-old D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs). But you can take it to the kitchen: Voters will say “Yes, Chef” to The Bear’s leading man for the second straight ceremony. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai
If I could give an Emmy to one of the Reservation Dogs ensemble, it would be to Devery Jacobs — for writing, directing and acting — but in lieu of that, Woon-A-Tai had a very impressive season, especially in “Maximus,” which he shared with the great Graham Greene. No offense to White, but Woon-A-Tai or Berry would be more interesting. — D.F.
Best Lead Actress, Comedy Series
WILL WIN Jean Smart
This is between Hacks’ Jean Smart, who won for both of her show’s prior seasons; Abbott Elementary’s Quinta Brunson, who won last year when Smart was ineligible; and The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri, who last year won best comedy supporting actress, then submitted as a lead this season. Smart has beaten Brunson, but Edebiri’s never competed against either. Edge to the veteran. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Jean Smart
Smart has reached the Candice Bergen/Julia Louis-Dreyfus phase where it’s pathologically boring to keep giving her Emmys, but she’s so good in so many different ways that you can’t quibble. Deborah Vance’s dark turn in the season finale, desperately clinging to the dream she thought had passed her by, was beautifully played. — D.F.
Best Limited/Anthology Series
WILL WIN Baby Reindeer
HBO’s True Detective and FX’s Fargo are anthology series up for their fifth and fourth installments; the former garnered a field-best 19 total noms, while the latter won this award for its debut in 2014. And Netflix has two limiteds in contention: the artful Ripley and the personal and provocative Baby Reindeer, which, like other recent winners, has spurred cultural conversation. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Ripley
Steven Zaillian responded to the worthy “Do we need a new Ripley take?” question with a sad, suspenseful, sometimes hilarious eight-episode limited series. Andrew Scott put his personal stamp on this mature, less preternaturally talented version of the character, and Robert Elswit’s breathtaking black-and-white cinematography is an Emmy lock. — D.F.
Best Lead Actor, Limited/Anthology Series
WILL WIN Richard Gadd
Richard Gadd, a stand-up comic with little acting experience, wrote Baby Reindeer drawing upon his personal experiences, and then decided to play himself, which could have gone very wrong. Other nominees’ performances may be more emotive — Ripley’s Andrew Scott, Fargo’s Jon Hamm and Feud: Capote vs. The Swans’ Tom Hollander — but not more haunting. — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Richard Gadd
This is a great category, featuring Hamm with nipple rings, Matt Bomer as a Red Scare version of Don Draper, and Hollander and Scott putting their own stamps on characters played indelibly multiple times before. But for all of the aspects of Baby Reindeer that came out of nowhere, Gadd’s semi-autobiographical open wound of a performance was the most revelatory. — D.F.
Best Lead Actress, Limited/Anthology Series
WILL WIN Jodie Foster
Jodie Foster is one of the most revered actresses in the world, but she has never won an Emmy, and voters will be hard-pressed to deny her for her turn in the latest True Detective. If an upset were to happen, it could come from fellow Oscar winner Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry) or, for her first dramatic role, Sofía Vergara (Griselda). — S.F.
SHOULD WIN Juno Temple
Both Foster and Larson bring their star wattage to embodying unapologetically prickly characters, but I love how Juno Temple starts with what feels like a cartoon — the latest Fargo embodiment of Minnesota nice — and finds the trauma and the sweetness and the fierce (Dot) Lyon toughness. She’s especially good in the finale with the snubbed Sam Spruell. — D.F.
This story first appeared in the Sept. 11 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
Source: Hollywoodreporter
