What a Difference a Wickedly Good Week Can Make at the Box Office. But Can the Feast Last?

The Thanksgiving box office feast of 2024 was nothing short of sizzling, proving that the marketplace can expand beyond expectations when the chefs of Hollywood deliver dishes that appeal to varied appetites. Led by Walt Disney Animation’s family film Moana 2, Universal’s musical adaptation Wicked and Paramount’s epic Gladiator II, domestic revenue for the long five-day holiday weekend soared to an all-time, jaw-dropping high of $425 million — far outstripping the previous record of $316 million set in 2018. 

Domestic box office revenue for the year had been down 10.6 percent from 2023 despite the launch of Wicked and Gladiator II during the Nov. 22-23 weekend, a grim reminder of the dramatic slowdown in product because of the labor strikes and lingering impact of the pandemic. Post-Thanksgiving, annual revenue is off by only 6.3 percent at $7.78 billion, providing a glimmer of hope that ticket sales for 2024 could come in at $8.5 billion to $8.6 billion, and possibly more more. Last year, revenue cleared $9 billion, still a far cry from the $11 billion pre-COVID era. 

Whether the box office can cough up $1 billion between now and Dec. 31 will depend on the performance of the Thanksgiving standouts — animated films can have especially long legs — and the December holiday calendar, which is anchored by Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King and Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3, both of which open Dec. 20 and are tracking to strong numbers. To say Christmas 2024 is a wee bit underpowered may be an understatement since there is usually more product, say box office sources, and the calendar certainly could have used a behemoth like a Star Wars movie or Avatar installment. 

There’s an age-old theory among film distributors that rising tides lift all boats, and they’re hoping that the Thanksgiving gold rush will keep consumers in the habit of going to the movies in the coming weeks. to the movies in the coming weeks. “If Mufasa, Sonic and Kraven and all the other releases overperform by virtue of a super-charged late November marketplace, then we could be looking at the potential for a Christmas box office miracle,” says Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “Honestly, anything over $8.5 billion is a huge win considering $8 billion was thought to be a stretch just a couple of months ago.”

Some had groused that it was silly to open Wicked and Moana 2 so close together, considering they’re both female-skewing properties. But those pundits were proved wrong. Wicked is drawing much of its strength from female moviegoers 35 and older, while nearly 40 percent of Moana 2’s opening weekend audience was 17 and younger, including 25 percent under age 12. Gladiator II, of course, is the big draw for males; they’re buying roughly 60 percent of its tickets. 

Moana 2, bowing Thanksgiving eve, snapped one record after another in posting a five-day North American debut of $225.4 million, including $139.8 million for the three-day weekend, and should finish its second weekend with north of $600 million global ticket sales. Wicked also kept audiences spellbound, earning almost as much over the five-day holiday ($118.2 million) as it did in its history-making $112 million domestic debut, and it has already passed Grease to become the top-grossing Broadway musical adaptation of all time.

Wicked, with a domestic haul of $281 million and north of $390 million globally through Dec. 4, should cross the $300 million mark domestically sometime on Friday, Dec. 6. Also on Friday, Moana 2 will pass up the entire domestic lifetime run of 2016’s Moana ($248.8 million) after only 10 days in release, not adjusted for inflation. Gladiator II, which opened Nov. 22 opposite Wicked, has earned a pleasing $327 million to date at the global box office.

Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of Roth Capital Management says Thanksgiving was nothing short of astonishing. “The last 6 weeks of the quarter look great and consumers are clearly willing to return to theaters when the content is compelling. This situation bodes well for 2025 and 2026, both of which have loaded film slates.

With last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon still fresh in the minds of moviegoers, many made a point of going to see at least two, if not all three, of the Thanksgiving tentpoles, at least according to social media. And both Wicked and Moana 2 are already benefiting from repeat viewing.

There have only been four times in history when back-to-back weekends delivered movies opening to $100 million or more, such as Moana 2 and Wicked. “And this has never happened outside of the summer season — until now,” says Dergarabedian. “The unprecedented success of those two films and Gladiator II within a mere 10-day window will now have everyone in Hollywood looking to seize the next such opportunity to utilize the release calendar to maximum box office effect.”