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Oscar Predictions Feinberg Forecast: Post-Venice/Telluride/TIFF/Emmys

Photo of Liam James Liam James16 September 2025Last Updated: 16 September 2025
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The Smashing Machine

A NOTE FROM SCOTT With the 82nd Venice, 52nd Telluride and 50th Toronto film festivals and the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards now in the rearview mirror, the focus of the awards-industrial complex — journalists, publicists and talent — has shifted fully to the race to the 98th Oscars.

Since our last check-in, Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (Focus) solidified its frontrunner status by winning Toronto’s audience award, with Frankenstein and Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (both Netflix) placing second and third, respectively. Toronto’s audience award is often predictive of best picture Oscar traction — Chariots of Fire, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book and Zhao’s 2020 film Nomadland all won the former and went on to win the latter — but not always (last year’s winner, The Life of Chuck, faces an uphill climb this season).

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Venice, meanwhile, awarded its top prize, the Golden Lion, to Father Mother Sister Brother (Mubi). Among its other winners: Benny Safdie was named best director for The Smashing Machine (A24) and Toni Servillo was chosen as best actor for La Grazia (Mubi).

Back in LA, journalists who were not in Venice, including myself, have just seen Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite (Netflix). A directing tour-de-force and true ensemble piece, it will spark the same sort of concern and conversation about the proliferation of nuclear weapons that the 1983 ABC TV movie The Day After — one of the most watched TV programs of all time — did two generations ago.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) has also begun screening in LA. Many journalists caught it last week — I was still in Toronto, so I will be seeing it later this week — and it unspooled for Academy members on Saturday night. Other member screenings last weekend included Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside), with Jennifer Lopez in attendance for a post-screening Q&A, and the documentary feature Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber).

And, ahead of the Oct. 1 submission deadline, the best international feature Oscar competition is continuing to shape up. The most significant recent news related to that is Brazil’s submission of The Secret Agent (Neon), which has been playing through the roof at festival and industry screenings, with writer/director Kleber Mendonça Filho and lead actor Wagner Moura both looking like very strong contenders.

Additionally, Poland entered Kafka (still seeking U.S. distribution), the latest film from the great Agnieszka Holland, who has previously had films chosen to represent Poland (2011’s In Darkness, which was nominated, and 2017’s Spoor), West Germany (1985’s Angry Harvest, which was nominated) and the Czech Republic (2020’s Charlatan, which was shortlisted).

Please remember: my forecasts do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences. My aim is not to advocate for what I think the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. I arrive at my projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.

Source: Hollywoodreporter

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Photo of Liam James Liam James16 September 2025Last Updated: 16 September 2025
0 0 11 minutes read
Photo of Liam James

Liam James

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